Response to The Matthew Effect

Draxi has made an interesting long response to my post The Matthew Effect : How WoW is Like Bill Gates

Although I agree with the Matthew effect I dissagree with the idea that somehow WoW or any other venture is unkillable. It all boils down to strategy.
WoW has a major weakness that no MMO has taken advantage of, the weakness is the ebb and flow of interest of the average WoW player. Anyone who has played any MMO has seen the effect of burnout if you want to see it check the number of online players in your guild between major expansions/patches. The time that any MMO is the weakest is after a major expansion while a new expansion is on the works. When TBC was out WoW attendance numbers soared, then fell a bit before BT, then fell more, by the time Sunwell came out (I think it was also summer) there were few players around. The game of course “died” when WoTLK was officially anounced to be resurected right before the expansion was released.
The EQ/EQ2 blunder described happens in WoW ( see : http://www.protein-gold.com ) with every expansion yet no MMO has taken full advantage of it. The problem is that WoW blunders are not as pronounced as EQ2, in order for an MMO to really take the reins off WoW it needs to hit right when burnout hits WoW players not before a major expansion is about to yank all addicts back in. WAR and AoC were released right before WoTLK, they suffered from an early release and lack of content by the time their players started getting bored of their unfinished state WoTLK hit hard. LoTRO with MoM at least tried and I believe it was a bit successful hitting WoW right when burnout from WoTLK had settled in and before Uldar hype got many WoW addicts fighting dummies in the PTR. Now if only the folks over at LoTRO got their trials right (ask any drug dealer when someone new comes over you give them the good stuff) they could really hurt WoW.
I am hopping that by the time SW:TOR hits shelves the lesson would have sunk in and we wont see an unfinished product attempting to steal WoW players a month before an expansion.
In short a raiding advice that fits: When you are about to hit the boss you don’t go in unprepared hoping for the best… in order to bring down the beast give 110% and be ready to sacrifice (a.k.a give free trials) for the good of the raid.

 

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